Dan Rae Hugo is unfamiliar with the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement. All he understands is that his diesel expenses have doubled, his profit levels have disappeared, and the rice on his neighbors' plates now comes at a 20 percent higher price compared to what it was prior to the... Iran war .
A 43-year-old individual has been cultivating the lands of Iloilo, the Philippines For 18 years. He has never put in more effort for so little.
"All of these factors contribute: the diesel fuel, the labor required to run the machinery, and the transport during harvesting... This is the highest I've ever witnessed," Hugo stated.
Approximately 150 kilometers (93 miles) away from his farm, officials from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gathered in the conference centers of Cebu to discuss the exact crisis endangering Hugo's way of life: a worldwide energy shortage impacting all 11 countries within the organization.
They concurred — as they have done previously — to speed up an energy security structure and move ahead a regional power grid which might, in principle, help keep electric costs steady for almost 700 million residents living in Southeast Asia.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr provided expression to the immediate necessity. "We needed it last month. Don't even think about next month, six months, or a year from now," he stated. "We needed it yesterday, if not earlier."
His comments targeted the core of an enduring criticism against the group, namely that its reliance on unanimous agreement limits its capacity to act quickly during emergencies and makes it barely more than a discussion forum.
With ASEAN set to celebrate its 60th anniversary next year, experts and ex-diplomats spoke with This Week in Asia, stating that the organization has, according to most historical standards, achieved significant accomplishments.
It has maintained stability in an area that was collapsing upon itself at its inception. It has overseen one of the greatest economic rises ever recorded in human history. It has woven together 11 transforming some of the globe's most varied countries into an effective international relations group that achieves more than its combined strength suggests.
Yet, as it gets ready to celebrate six decades of presence, a series of overlapping challenges—ranging from the energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict and an ongoing military coup without resolution to the unraveling global order—is revealing ASEAN's shortcomings fully.
Born of distrust
ASEAN originated in August 1967 in Bangkok, emerging from the efforts of five nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—who had strong reasons for suspicion toward each other but surprisingly decided to work together.
The Cold War reached its peak. Communist ideology was gaining ground in the area. Indonesia and Malaysia had just emerged from a military conflict that extended beyond Singapore which had recently left the Federation of Malaya itself.
Save for Thailand Every original member had just come out of colonial domination—under various rulers, with distinct complaints, varied languages, and differing religions.
The fact that they remained united in the first place, as former Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Delia D. Albert stated, was "worth being proud of."
The fact that they have remained united for 60 years, growing from five members to eleven, and has become the fifth largest economy globally—expected to rise to third place by 2030—is an even more remarkable accomplishment.
Assessing Asean based on its original purpose and accomplishments is a more constructive approach," Albert said during an interview with This Week in Asia. "Naturally, everyone hopes for greater achievements, yet it’s important to recognize how and why it was established, as well as evaluate what it has accomplished over the last six decades.
Since 1991, significant military conflicts among ASEAN nations have not occurred, except for the recent one. Thailand-Cambodia border clashes The group has finalized significant trade deals with China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Additionally, its core agreement based on mutual respect and non-intervention, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, has been ratified by 58 nations.
Regional principles of peace and discussion have been promoted, enabling the area to significantly improve quality of life," stated Hunter Marston, head of the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia program, regarding ASEAN. "It has established a diplomatic network...which has enhanced regional unity.
However, according to experts, the very principles that enabled ASEAN's creation—consensus, non-intervention, and equal sovereignty—are currently leading to its longest-standing shortcomings. Decisions needing universal agreement often come too late, weakened, or fail to materialize altogether.
Accords finalized during summits often remain unimplemented due to conflicting domestic priorities. The energy security structure that Hugo is unfamiliar with has actually been present in different versions for many years. The electricity network has been under consideration for several decades.
"ASEAN must explore new and creative methods to enhance its decision-making procedures," stated foreign policy analyst Sharon Seah, a former diplomat currently holding the position of principal fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
She characterized the current decision-making process of the block as sluggish and complicated, hindered by decades of increasing bureaucratic procedures.
Albert, who was the Philippines' initial female foreign minister during the tenure of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, has a sharp understanding of the compromises that ASEAN represents.
You must keep in mind that we differ from the EU, which has a supernational authority directing our actions," she stated. "We remain autonomous in numerous aspects, and that is the sole manner in which it can function.
ASEAN, at its core, was intended to embrace rather than enforce—and achieving widespread inclusivity across such a varied region requires patience, which emergencies often do not allow.
The Myanmar impasse
Several emergencies have challenged the group's tolerance more intensely than Myanmar .
When the nation's military, referred to as the Tatmadaw, took control in February 2021 , arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and directed their weapons at demonstrators, ASEAN acted with unusual rapidity.
Shortly after, it facilitated a " five-point consensus strategy with military leader" "plan involving top general" "tactics led by commandant" "coordinated effort of leadership" "joint strategy under commander-in-chief" "collaboration with head of regime" "operation planned by ruling council" "conspiracy orchestrated by leaders" "military coordination meeting" "governmental planning session Min Aung Hlaing as a structure for truce, discussion, and aid delivery.
A group established on the principle of not interfering in one another's matters took an unusual action. In subsequent years, this move proved largely unsuccessful. Min Aung Hlaing delayed responses. ASEAN excluded him from meetings. Violence persisted.
Thinzar Shulei Yi was just 20 years old when she began leading demonstrations against the military regime that controlled Myanmar for almost half a century before 2011. Her inspiration came from her work with orphans who lost their families during the prolonged period of civil war.
Currently 34 years old, she has witnessed soldiers shooting at her friends during demonstrations and observed others vanish into detention centers. Her parents have faced harassment from the Tatmadaw.
ASEAN has concealed its wrongdoings globally," she stated regarding the military, "which could lead ASEAN to lose credibility and authority, not only with the people of Myanmar but also among ASEAN residents.
Tun Khin bears another kind of injury. As the chairman of the Burmese Rohingya Organization UK, he had his citizenship revoked under Myanmar's 1982 Citizenship Act, which determined national status based on ethnic background, thereby making him stateless. the Rohingya stateless.
Starting from the 1970s, his community has faced displacement from Rakhine State, restricted access to schooling, and restrictions on free marriage choices, with many imprisoned for violating these rules without proper authorization. He currently resides in the United Kingdom.
He referred to the military regime's utilization of ASEAN membership as a "shield to ward off global scrutiny."
Upon allowing Myanmar to become a member, ASEAN claimed that membership would promote transformation and reforms," he stated, referencing the nation's entry into the organization in 1997. "However, what we've witnessed instead is yet another military takeover, acts of genocide, and conflicts that are even more severe than before.
Both advocates dismissed viewing Myanmar's situation as solely an internal issue: the flow of refugees, drug networks, and cross-border crime have become regional concerns.
Thinzar Shulei Yi urged ASEAN to reject the five-point agreement, stop providing platforms for the Tatmadaw, and deliver humanitarian assistance directly via civilian organizations. Tun Khin emphasized that clear, deadline-driven goals for human rights and democracy were necessary, supported by a genuine risk of expelling Myanmar from the organization if these standards weren’t fulfilled.
Albert opposed removal but acknowledged that the present method was not working.
Her approach involves reviving an article the group has previously ignored: the "High Council" – a structured method for resolving conflicts outlined in the Treaty of Friendship but never implemented, which she sees as a panel composed of esteemed ASEAN elders granted authority to function free from the limitations imposed by their official roles.
If ASEAN wishes to address its own issues, it should establish this High Council," she stated. "Everyone tells me 'you're being overly ambitious' and 'you're too naïve,' but I believe we should give it a shot.
US-China squeeze
Myanmar could be the most challenging issue for the bloc, yet it isn't the sole concern. The internationally established order within which ASEAN developed and adapted according to its requirements is facing significant pressure.
The growing US-China competition has led member countries to pursue individual agreements on taxes, investments, and safety measures, which could potentially weaken the long-standing regional organization, as stated by foreign policy expert Lucio Blanco Pitlo III from the Manila-based Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.
The block's strength came from its combined influence, he stated. Should this be broken down into 11 individual deals, the organization would forfeit all the authority it previously held.
Pitlo stated that ASEAN provides a forum for its perspectives to be recognized globally and to actively influence the standards shaping its region.
At present, the worldwide security situation is more unstable compared to recent decades.
Muhammad Faizal bin Abdul Rahman, a security specialist working at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, pointed out that the cooperative standards within ASEAN, which had taken many years to develop, were facing challenges due to emerging principles.
Peace is increasingly threatened by a shift toward economic and military pressure, with cooperation suffering from rising strategic mistrust," he stated. "It will be interesting to see how ASEAN can enhance its mechanisms while upholding its neutrality and unity.
Invisible to millions
Returning to Cebu, alongside the leaders' meeting, the Indonesian Foreign Policy Community (FPCI) think tank held "ASEAN for the People Week," aiming to close a divide that even former officials from the block admit remains unbridged.
Barry Desker, who once represented Singapore at the Asean Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights, highlighted this issue as early as 2017.
A true dedication to ASEAN's principles was mainly found among officials and experts, he stated in an opinion piece.
According to Desker, for many of the various groups residing in Southeast Asia, the concept of an ASEAN community based on shared principles and a unified identity aimed at a collective future remains an aspiration yet to be realized.
ASEAN possesses an official anthem, although most people across the region's 700 million inhabitants remain unfamiliar with it.
According to Faizal, few people feel proud or even care about which nation is currently leading ASEAN. The organization that has been present in the background of their lives for many years still goes unnoticed by most individuals.
"these reflect the insufficient understanding and recognition of Asean by common people across southeast asia," faizal stated.
This lack of visibility might represent the bloc's most significant long-term weakness. However, Marston proposes that concrete outcomes could shift this situation.
"Although its main activities are more abstract and not directly relevant to the daily lives of ASEAN citizens, if it can effectively resolve conflicts such as the one between Thailand and Cambodia or reduce increasing fuel costs through a strategic oil reserve, it could begin to be viewed as having a more tangible effect at the grassroots level," he stated.
Dino Patti Djalal, a previous Indonesian ambassador and minister leading the FPCI, stated that civil society should be incorporated more intentionally into ASEAN discussions, particularly in today’s growing multi-polar global landscape.
An ASEAN community centered around people," he stated at a Cebu town hall meeting during the People's Week event, "is guided and formed not only by governmental policies... but also by the people of the region.
Hugo is among such individuals. He isn't aware of the choices made 150 kilometers from his farm last month. However, he is fully conscious that his fuel expenses have never been this steep, and he is awaiting—like numerous Southeast Asians have done previously—to witness if the pacts established under his behalf actually reach his farmland.
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