Occasionally, a Land Rover Defender arrives at the front of the Reform Party’s Makerfield headquarters, located on an industrial park in southern Wigan, and drops off a group of mostly male political supporters.
They softly yell offensive chants prior to standing for pictures holding dark blue signs with the message: 'We're voting Restore Britain.' Afterward, they return to their loud four-wheel-drive vehicle and depart.
The strange event acts as a symbol for the condition of what is possibly the most significant by-election in Britain's modern era.
According to the survey, which concludes on Thursday, it was anticipated to be a battle between Reform and Labour A win for the former would undoubtedly elevate its nominee, Andy Burnham , returning to Westminster and on an apparently unbreakable trajectory to Downing Street .
In reality, quite another situation has been unfolding.
Throughout the past few weeks, a remarkable quantity of oxygen has been used up—and some could claim squandered—on intense arguments between Nigel Farage Their faction and opponents in Restore, an previously little-known far-right group that was formed just last year and is headed by 68-year-old ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe.
The impact of this conflict has become evident in surveys, indicating that the most significant by-election in Britain's recent history could conclude in one of two possible outcomes.
Should voter participation be strong, Burnham is expected to secure an easy victory, potentially receiving up to 10 percent more votes than his opponents. In case of low turnout, the contest may become significantly closer: even though he remains the favorite (bookmakers estimate his odds at 84 percent), the difference might only amount to a few percentage points.
Either scenario would inevitably lead Britain toward having its most left-leaning prime minister ever.
However, Andy Burnham is not expected to win the seat of Makerfield through support from loud-speaking socialists. Rather, his likely triumph stems from the surprising appeal of Restore, the most conservative party in the race.
A confidential, internally conducted Labour party survey, which was disclosed yesterday, outlined this peculiar situation clearly and explicitly.
It features Farage's nominee, a plumber called Robert Kenyon, at 24 percent, approximately 11 percentage points below Burnham. Restoring's Rebecca Shepherd, who runs a local business, has the backing of 13 percent of potential voters, which is over twice the figure from several weeks ago, and sufficient to maintain the crucial swing in influence.
If Restore didn't exist, Reform could easily capture those 13 percent, setting it on course for success. In other words, Lowe is now taking from Farage what Farage previously took from the Conservatives.
So, how—and why—has this occurred? And what has propelled this new political group, unfamiliar to numerous voters and nonexistent just a year back, into a position that could possibly lead to historical significance?
The response centers on a remarkable story involving midlife masculine pride, a toxic and often very small-scale rivalry, claims of hostile conduct and sexual misconduct — along with a remarkably smart and successful application of online platforms.
Assisted by a small team of assistants, including Alistair Harrison, a previous UKIP employee, Lowe has built significant audiences on X, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram, with his profiles skilled at generating popular posts designed specifically for each platform.
A group, some of whom reportedly fondly call their manager 'Grandpa Simpson,' excels at crafting content that resonates with different algorithms, a method critics term 'the many faces of Rupert Lowe.'
At Facebook and Instagram, which together have 1.8 million followers, posts featuring political content and videos of Lowe criticizing government officials during parliamentary hearings are mixed with scenic images of his Gloucestershire farm, accompanied by phrases like 'real England'.
On X (with 800,000 followers), he often comes across as significantly more aggressive and confrontational, aligning with the platform's tendency for debate. His TikTok account (with 90,000 followers) is even louder. No matter the platform, a significant portion of his material—contributing to Restore gaining approximately 120,000 members—focuses on contentious topics like immigration, criminality, and bringing back capital punishment.
The party's policy agenda features popular initiatives like prohibiting the burqa, limiting halal and kosher animal slaughtering practices, and sending undocumented immigrants back to their home countries. Supporters have recently contributed over £500,000 through a crowdfunding campaign to support Lowe's informal investigation into child grooming networks.
They've assisted him in gaining significant backing, not only in Britain but also overseas, where Trump supporters hold him in high esteem. Posts going viral on X, which is owned by Elon Musk—a vocal supporter—have earned him £26,411.68 from the platform's creative content fund this year.
Although Lowe is personally extremely courteous and refined—quite unlike his confrontational image on X—he holds moderate opinions regarding topics like farming and finance; however, certain more extreme stances he has taken on other subjects have drawn notably dubious admirers.
They include former Chelsea captain John Terry (previously penalized by the FA for racially insulting a teammate), who recently replied to one of Lowe's tweets advocating that Britain "ban outsiders from accessing welfare" with the phrase "100% Yes!", as well as Steve Laws, a member of Restore who leads an organization named Remigration Now (advocating for the removal of individuals of non-European descent) and who has described Hitler as "a very misinterpreted leader."
It's ironic that someone once an investment banker with a background from Radley College frequently criticizes the 'Establishment' through his online comments, a group he now encompasses including Nigel Farage and Reform.
A notable example emerged this week, as he shared numerous posts highlighting that the suspect involved in this week's attack in Belfast entered Britain during the time when Robert Jenrick (now part of Reform) served as the Conservative Party's immigration minister, and Suella Braverman (similarly) held the position of Home Secretary. While some may label this as self-serving, others simply view it as standard political practice.
The conflict with Nigel Farage's party may be what drives Lowe the most. Detractors argue that Restore is less about aiming for power and transforming the nation than being a movement driven by bitterness and individual resentment.
A bad impression goes back to 2019, when Lowe—who also earned significant wealth through a care-home business and served as chairman of Southampton Football Club for about ten years—decided to run for Farage’s Brexit Party during the general election.
After being given the crucial constituency of Dudley North, he withdrew just moments before nomination deadlines to increase the chances of the Conservative candidate winning, stating he didn’t wish to divide the anti-EU vote, adding that he put 'the country above his party' since it was quite possible his campaign might enable [Jeremy] Corbyn’s ... candidate to triumph.
Farage felt deeply upset. However, he stepped away from political life not long after the election and dissolved the Brexit Party. The event quickly faded from memory, and Lowe, who had consistently been part of Eurosceptic groups since the 1990s, was eventually pardoned.
In 2023, Lowe became part of Reform. At that time, the party had approximately 4 percent support in the polls and was headed by entrepreneur Richard Tice. Tice invited Lowe to speak at the party's spring conference the next year, but the gathering held at Doncaster Racecourse turned chaotic when Lowe urged Farage to come back into active political life and take over from Tice as leader.
A person near Tice stated: "It was an extremely impolite remark and embarrassing for Richard. He genuinely hoped Nigel would return, yet this wasn’t the right moment to express that."
Isabel Oakeshott, Tice's partner and soon-to-be fiancée, immediately reached out to Lowe through a text message, but instead received what a witness described as 'an explosion of insults.' She was essentially referred to as insignificant and informed that she was merely someone else's girlfriend, with an instruction to 'go away'.
Regardless, Farage did come back shortly after, heading up Reform during the 2024 election. Lowe secured a position in Great Yarmouth, joining the party as one of its five newly elected MPs.
Shortly after, he began having conflicts with Farage. "They're both dominant personalities with firm opinions and big egos," according to a source from Westminster. "While they might have agreed on around 80 percent of issues, possibly even higher, neither is willing to make concessions, which made Rupert very difficult to handle."
Conflict became visible last January when there was a public debate about whether Reform should back Tommy Robinson, the far-right ex-leader of the English Defence League, who was currently serving an 18-month jail term for violating court orders.
Lowe had voiced support for Robinson on X. But Farage, who according to insiders ‘knows that you’ll never win an election unless you have a zero-tolerance policy towards former BNP people or the far-Right in general’, used a rally in Leicester to publicly state that his party would have nothing to do with him.
This led Elon Musk, an admirer of Robinson, to share a statement stating: "The Reform Party requires a new leader. Farage lacks the necessary qualities." He further mentioned: "Although I haven't met Rupert Lowe, his online comments... seem quite reasonable."
Two months after that, tensions escalated when Lowe spoke with Andrew Pierce from the Daily Mail, criticizing Farage's 'messianic' approach, noting that Reform remained a 'protest party,' and expressing uncertainty about whether Farage could "deliver" and serve as Prime Minister.
Farage quickly jumped onto the media, asserting that Lowe's critique was "entirely and totally incorrect," and sarcastically remarked: "Maybe he desires to become prime minister. Most individuals in politics do."
Two days later, Zia Yusuf, who was previously the chairperson of Reform, along with Chief Whip Lee Anderson issued a remarkable statement indicating that they had removed the party whip from Lowe due to accusations including 'workplace harassment' as well as 'insulting and prejudicial comments... directed at female employees [and] threats of bodily harm'.
Lowe faced accusations of menacing Yusuf, a claim that was brought to Scotland Yard. Law enforcement conducted an extensive inquiry, during which they visited Lowe's residence and seized his shotguns. However, no legal action was ultimately taken.
Lowe described everything as "a harmful effort to tarnish my reputation." Over a year later, he is still angry about Reform's attempts to "get me arrested," stating, "It was an attack on my character. At one stage, they were spreading rumors that I suffered from early-onset dementia."
In his view, Farage stated that within eight months in Parliament, Lowe had "managed to clash with all of his fellow MPs somehow," and he added, “We tried our hardest to control the situation, but ultimately, efforts to contain it always end up failing.”
Following a short period as an independent, Lowe established Restore as a political party in March of this year. A chance for retaliation emerged during the latest local elections, when the party nominated nine candidates for the Norfolk County Council. All of them secured victory, defeating Reform and highlighting the party's capabilities.
In Makerfield, its grassroots supporters have primarily directed their efforts toward undermining Team Farage, achieving some level of effectiveness that has also frustrated Reform advocates.
A local Reform representative states, 'Our efforts targeting Labour have remained constructive and mature. We haven't resorted to personal attacks, and all parties involved have maintained decorum.' However, they added, 'With Restore, the situation has turned poisonous. They're spreading accusations, and some of them are taking hold.'
Another person said: "Their community keeps showing up at our office and attempting to create conflicts. At one time, the police had to be contacted."
Other unpleasant incidents have occurred at a local bar called the Primrose Carvery, where certain political activists are said to have been denied entry.
A high-ranking member of the Reform movement shared with me: 'It's complete nihilism. Hostile and extremely unpleasant.'
One individual claims that activists are "being brought in from different areas of the nation, and many of them are individuals we have expelled for being overly right-leaning."
Lowe, meanwhile, maintains that Restore is not merely a protest group but a genuine political initiative with the potential to eventually secure top positions in government.
I believe the polls in Makerfield are not reflecting our true potential, and we will achieve much more than 13 percent," he said to me yesterday evening. "My plan is to field a group of candidates in every constituency during the upcoming general election. We're connecting with something genuine, and people are tired of the current situation.
The Conservatives, whose officials mistakenly assigned Lowe a position on the Public Accounts Committee, are observing with delight, hoping that Restore's criticisms could assist them in regaining backing from Reform.
However, the alternate scenario sees the Right descending into the kind of internal divisions that defined the Left in the 1980s, when Labour breakaway groups focused more on fighting among themselves rather than seeking political influence, thereby handing their genuine rivals 18 consecutive years in government.
Andy Burnham is surely delighted with his socialist attire.
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