Tigrayan Forces Prep Offensive as Ethiopia Warns of Escalation

Concerns are increasing in Ethiopia following claims that groups in the northern Tigray area are getting ready for an attack on the central administration in the near future.

A conflict lasting two years between Tigray and Addis Ababa resulted in over 600,000 deaths prior to a ceasefire being reached in 2022.

However, the ceasefire has faced growing pressure, and open conflicts resumed toward the end of last year.

An opinion piece published by Al Jazeera featured comments from Ethiopia's head of intelligence and Minister for African Affairs, who claimed that the Tigray People's Liberation Front was planning to initiate another conflict with support from nearby Eritrea. Although this radical group has been prohibited from engaging in politics, it still holds significant influence in Tigray and maintains its own military force.

The article urged "all individuals who have any power or impact over the TPLF and its supporters in Asmara" to apply full pressure on them to prevent a return to violence.

Federal officials had earlier charged the TPLF with growing closer to Eritrea , despite the group's denial.

The article stated, 'It is crucial for all individuals who have any power or impact on the TPLF and its supporters in Asmara to apply intense pressure to prevent a return to hostilities.'

It continued by cautioning that "resuming conflicts would be risky and could lead to significant regional impacts."

The writers additionally stated that discussions are occurring between Eritreans and individuals from the TPLF in the Eritrean capital, the Tigrayan city of Mekelle, and Sudan.

In May, Ethiopia and Sudan—both involved in internal conflict since 2023—exchanged claims that each had breached the other's borders and was backing rebel groups.

'Clear violation'

For almost three decades, the TPLF held control over all of Ethiopia before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018.

Last year, Abiy's administration prohibited the TPLF from engaging in politics, yet it continues to hold significant power in Tigray, maintaining its own armed forces.

By the end of April, the group stated that they had reinstated a regional parliament which was considered invalid.

"Breaching the (2022 peace agreement) openly, the remnants of the TPLF have abolished the local provisional authority and established an unlawful governance structure," the editorial stated.

Before the conflict, Tigray was home to approximately six million residents. About one million individuals are now uprooted due to the fighting, and the area faces severe financial difficulties since federal support has ceased.

The area was not involved in nationwide elections held on June 1, with Abiy anticipated to secure victory once the outcomes are revealed.

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