Despite being diminished, the Lebanon-based Hezbollah armed group continues to play a key role in Iran's influence within the Middle East. Tehran has demanded their involvement in any potential agreement between the U.S. and Israel.
The circumstances in the Middle East continue to be volatile, with a delicate truce in the conflict involving Iran appearing increasingly unstable as All parties trade warnings and open fire .
On Monday, the United States attributed the downing of an attack helicopter near Oman to Iran and conducted airstrikes against Iranian locations. The bombing operations have extended into Tuesday. In response, Iran launched assaults on American facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait.
However, the dispute extends beyond the United States and Iran. Despite an ostensible ceasefire Between Israel and the Iran-supported Hezbollah group, the Israeli military targeted areas in the outskirts of Beirut during the weekend after recent rocket assaults by Hezbollah. Soon after, Tehran retaliated with missile attacks against Israeli land. In response, Israel carried out strikes on locations within Iran.
The ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has disrupted attempts led by U.S. President Donald Trump to reach an agreement with Tehran to conclude the hostilities.
Based in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a Shia armed faction supported by Iran, recognized as a terror group by Western countries, Israel, Gulf Arab states, and the Arab League.
Pressure mounts on Iran's Middle Eastern strategy
"According to Arman Mahmoudian, a Middle East specialist from the University of South Florida, a main focus for Iran right now is making sure that Hezbollah is part of any future political deals and peace talks." He added that any such agreement would necessitate both sides giving up something.
However, for Tehran, it is essential that Hezbollah did not turn into a negotiation tool The matter under discussion for Iran concerns its power within the region.
Mahmoudian stated that if Hezbollah faces continued attacks from Israel while simultaneously appearing as though Tehran is distancing itself from it, this might lead to major repercussions for Iran and erode the trust of other regional allies of Iran—like the Houthis in Yemen or Shia groups in Iraq.
"Ultimately, Hezbollah entered this conflict mainly due to allegiance to Iran and targeted Israel after the death of Khamenei," Mahmoudian stated.
After the start of the Iran War on February 28 and the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli air attack on Tehran, the Lebanese Hezbollah group launched missiles against Israel, thus joining the conflict alongside Iran.
Israel retaliated with air strikes on the southern suburbs of the capital city Beirut and other areas within its northern neighboring country, escalating the conflict into Lebanon. The Israeli defense forces have also controlled a stretch of territory in south Lebanon forming a "security zone" in a region that states Hezbollah carries out assaults against Israeli cities.
Some 3,600 Lebanese civilians have been killed As reported by Lebanese health officials since hostilities broke out over 100 days ago.
The Hezbollah group as an organization with multiple functions
The Shia militant group Hezbollah was formed in the early 1980s amid the Lebanese Civil War and after Israel's incursion into Lebanon. Alongside Sunni Muslims (around 32%), Lebanon has approximately 31% Shia population, along with various Christian groups, Druze, and Alawites.
After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Shiite Iran was instrumental in establishing Hezbollah and continues to back the group with financial aid, military assistance, and ideological guidance.
The group possesses an armed faction, yet it is also recognized as a political party within the Lebanese legislature and manages various community organizations. Several nations including Germany and the United States, along with many others, designate Hezbollah partially or entirely as a terror entity. The group's operations were prohibited in Germany from 2020 onward.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is seen as considerably weaker now. Israeli armed attacks have damaged its combat effectiveness and murdered numerous of its leaders slain several of its leaders eliminated multiple of its leaders caused the death of many of its leaders taken the lives of various leaders removed a significant number of its leaders led to the demise of many of its leaders resulted in the killing of several key figures overcome many of its leadership members neutralized a large portion of its leaders Since the terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, carried out by Hamas, an Iranian-supported armed faction.
However, the group has managed to restore some of its systems, albeit partially, following significant casualties, much like occurred after the 2006 Lebanon War.
The increasing expense of conflict with Israel
For many years, Hezbollah has served as a key component of Iran's regional plan. Iranian analyst Arash Azizi refers to this method as "forward defense." According to him, Iran aims to prevent possible dangers from occurring as distant from its borders as feasible using partner groups.
Nevertheless, this approach has seen some reversal. Currently, Iran is becoming more forced to take active measures to safeguard its allies, even if it means launching direct strikes against Israel and retaliating within its own borders and facilities.
As per Azizi, the emerging Iranian administration is making efforts to validate its backing of Hezbollah primarily through considerations of national security rather than ideological justifications.
Nonetheless, the claim persists that Iran, as a nation perceiving itself at odds with Israel, cannot easily relinquish... its regional allies ," he told Ants.
Meanwhile, the expenses associated with continued conflict with Israel are substantial for Iran. The financial losses resulting from the war are considerable because the living standards of numerous individuals have worsened and financial outlooks continue to be challenging.
"Therefore, the new leadership must not only tackle issues related to security and international relations, but also provide an outlook for the future that resonates with the Iranian population," stated Azizi.
The document was initially composed in German.
Author: Shabnam von Hein